[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Contracts Hit Consecutive Limit Ups Surpassing 400,000 Yuan Mark, Spot Trading Near Freezing Point]

On January 14, 2026, SHFE tin futures continued to show strength. The most-traded SN2602 contract quickly surged to the daily limit after opening and closed at 413,170 yuan/t, with a single-day gain of 8%, breaking through the key 400,000 yuan level. Since the beginning of this week, driven by macro sentiment and overseas markets, the market's willingness to go long has been continuously rising. Following the daytime session limit up on Monday, today saw another strong rally, reflecting the current high bullish sentiment. Meanwhile, LME tin futures have also been strengthening, currently quoted at $52,015, up 5.84%. The current market gains have already deviated from the rational range supported by fundamentals and macro factors. In the short term, it is necessary to closely monitor the development of overseas macro events and their impact on market sentiment, while being cautious about a potential rapid pullback once bulls exit.

In the spot market, under the backdrop of consecutive limit ups in futures, the trading atmosphere for spot transactions was near freezing. Buyers and sellers were in a stalemate at historical highs, with suppliers mostly holding prices pending sale. Downstream enterprises have faced high raw material costs since December, with continuous pressure on their capital chains, leading to severely suppressed purchase willingness, with only sporadic essential orders following up in small quantities. As prices continue to hit new highs, mid-to-downstream enterprises may enter the holiday state early, showing low restocking interest before the festival.

Overall, in the short term, tin prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs. It is recommended that all parties in the industry chain prudently manage exposure risks, avoid blindly chasing highs, and closely follow fundamental signals such as the progress of Myanmar's export resumption and changes in tin concentrate TCs in Yunnan, as well as any potential shifts in macro sentiment.